Bourbon. An iconic slice of Americana and America’s native spirit. The brown liquid that saw a meteoric rise over the past 15 years and captivated the hearts of millions of consumers. For many, it became more than a beloved drink, it became a hobby and a passion. And according to recent news reports, the bourbon boom is now a bourbon bust. But is that really the case?

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal this week made it sound like the bourbon boom hit a brick wall, and reality was about to hit the industry harder than a Kentucky Derby sized hangover. The reality is, yes, the industry is slowing down, yet the story is more nuanced than what it may appear to be, and it needs to be viewed from the eyes of both the average consumer, and the bourbon enthusiast.

For starters, there is no denying that change is afoot in the bourbon industry. MGP reported they’d be pumping the brakes last October, and just this week, Brown-Forman announced they’d be laying off 12% of the company and shutting down their Louisville-based cooperage, though notably, they titled their announcement a “Strategic Initiative for Growth.” However, it’s not just bourbon that has seen a recent decline. The entire United States alcohol market has seen a recent decline, in part due to changing consumer trends, including adopting a lifestyle of less consumption along with the rise of the legal cannabis industry.

So, is that the whole story? Did I just preamble to deliver some yeah-duh news? No. Like anything, this path forward will diverge in different directions for different players involved.

Let's start with craft distilleries. Thanks to the rapid rise of American whiskey, there’s usually at least one, if not more, craft distilleries in any given major or minor city in America nowadays. From the East Coast to the West Coast, North to South, bourbon is now known not just to be 100% associated with Kentucky. Some will survive, and many will not, but it comes down to how well-integrated they are in their local community versus not.

For those craft distillers who came about with grand aspirations of turning into a national brand with an eventual large buyout, they have a rough road ahead over the coming years.  Mergers and acquisitions in this space have already slowed down, and consumers are burned out by young whiskey at a high price. Those who have built a strong following in their local community and don't have aspirations of being a huge national player will probably be okay. This is due to the fact that focusing on their local market and integrating into it well via events, restaurant space, and so on, will afford them the ability to sustain this focus and adapt their offering to changing consumer trends with a deeply entrenched local audience.  

This logic doesn’t just apply to craft distilleries outside of Kentucky either. The same logic applies, especially more so here since expectations are always high in the Bluegrass State. However, those located in cities along the bourbon trail and near other large, established distilleries may have an easier time. That’s because they can piggyback on bourbon tourism and the visitors who are already in town for a big trip and willing to experience as many places as their schedule allows.

Speaking of, the Kentucky Bourbon Trail isn’t going away any time soon, and thanks to the large capital investment by many of the major distilleries that focused on the visitor experience, visiting distilleries on the bourbon trail is a vastly different experience from what it was 10 years ago. Kentucky has done a great job of enhancing its tourism in this regard, and bourbon enthusiasts will continue to want to visit their favorite distilleries and attend bourbon-related events in the state. That’s not to say that there won’t be a slowdown, but it won’t return to the times when you couldn’t even visit a distillery, much like how  Buffalo Trace Distillery used to be when they had zero focus (literally) on the guest experience and was a pure working factory.

Focusing on large, established distilleries, they’ll continue to survive in various forms. We may see acquisitions or job layoffs, but a pure shutdown would be rare. We’ll most likely see a constriction of new product offerings down the line, and the availability of everyday core products on shelves will be more saturated. Well established limited allocations will still be difficult to find, thanks to the core group of bourbon enthusiasts whose numbers swelled over the years. However, those who just want them to try to flip them will eventually move on to the next hot item that presents a better arbitrage situation in life. And while sales may slow, the international markets may still pick up steam after all which would help tide this slowdown stateside.

And finally, that brings us to the ultimate path in life, the bourbon consumer that drives these bust or boom cycles. The great thing about the last decade or so is that more individuals than ever were focused on trying, drinking, or collecting bourbon in some form or fashion. Not all will continue to buy bottles or order a bourbon cocktail, instead focusing on the next big spirits trend. Others, however, may have decided that they found a new spirit that they love and will add it to the rotation of spirits they’re willing to drink on a weekend or order in a cocktail. Most importantly, individuals like yourself (you are reading an American whiskey focused website) will now count themselves as bourbon enthusiasts and will likely continue to drink it late into their lives. You may not try as many new brands, but you’ll continue to support those distilleries, both local and national, that you’ve fallen in love with.

One thing is clear, the tides are changing, and the go-go-go days of just a few years ago are slowing down. It’s not totally all doom and gloom, as some opinions will paint the picture, but there’s also no need to try to sugarcoat things either. Change is coming, as with all things that burn hot, they eventually cool, but how brands and consumers adapt will determine how they continue to be intertwined in each other's lives in the future. I’ll continue to do just what I did before the boom, which is enjoying a fine glass of America’s native spirit, and try to get as many around us to do the same. In the coming years, bourbon may not be the “it” thing it once was, but there is a ton of passion surrounding it, and that won’t simply disappear. It will evolve and adapt, and for some that stick with it, may get to see that bourbon’s best years are still ahead.